[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 59.7W AT 28/2100
UTC...OR ABOUT 285 NM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. DANIELLE IS BECOMING
EMBEDDED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM NOVA SCOTIA CANADA TO 32N70W THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK DANIELLE N-NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE EXPERIENCING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN
54W-62W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 54.6W AT 29/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 495 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 18
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. EARL IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR
23N60W. WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LOW WIND SHEAR...
AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SURROUNDING THE ENVIRONMENT OF
EARL...INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EASTERN
AND 120 NM WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 51W-58W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 07N TO 19N ALONG 30W WITH A 1008 MB LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N30W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING
THE WAVE AND LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 26W AND 40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE REMAINS LIMITED TO THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA FROM 07N-17N BETWEEN 25W-35W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W TO 15N26W...RESUMING NEAR
10N33W TO 13N45W...THEN ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 60W-80W ACROSS
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 13W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF NEAR 23N97W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
E-NE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR W ATLC. NORTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LOUISIANA AND SUPPORTS A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW
AND THEN S FROM THE LOW ALONG 26N95W TO 20N95W. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION...STRONG SE WINDS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COVERING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N E OF
92W AND THE SW GULF S OF 27N W OF 92W. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NW AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE BASIN CENTERED
NEAR 10N81W THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING ALONG
10N/11N EASTWARD TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. WITH HIGH VALUES OF
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER W OF 73W AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 68W-83W. THIS INCLUDES HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN PANAMA TO WESTERN HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N60W. HOWEVER...WITH THE QUICKLY
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM EARL RIDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CONDITIONS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 72 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 65W AND
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. WHILE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTHWARD
TO 32N70W...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL N OF 27N
BETWEEN 67W-82W NEAR A DISSIPATED REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
31N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY N OF 27N...INCLUDING
A SMALLER AREA OVER THE NW BAHAMAS W OF 76W. FARTHER EAST...
HURRICANE DANIELLE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND QUICKLY BECOMING
ENTANGLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
U.S. SEABOARD. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE PROVIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND
DANGEROUS SURF TO BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A DEEP
LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 44N32W AND SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N26W. THE
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 26N34W AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TO
24N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC...MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED N OF 20N E OF 50W DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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