[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 282042
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE CENTER IS NOW TUCKED INTO THE
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EARL HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE VIGOROUS
CIRCULATION AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST DUE TO THE STILL PREVAILING NORTHERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS
THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY
OF VERY WARM WATERS ALONG
THE TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A
SIMILAR TREND INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL...AND MAKES EARL AN
INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

EARL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. DUE TO AN INITIAL MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TO
THE WEST THAN INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY
DURING THE NEXT FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS EARL MOVES NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS EN ROUTE TO CHECK EARL AND
WILL LIKELY GIVE US A BETTER MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND THE
WIND RADII.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/2100Z 16.5N  54.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N  57.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 17.5N  59.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 18.3N  61.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N  63.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 21.0N  67.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 25.0N  70.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 30.5N  72.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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