[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 272347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 27/0000 UTC IS NEAR
27.7N 60.4W...OR ABOUT 360 NM...SE OF BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 8
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140
KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 26N-29N
BETWEEN 58W-62W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 57W-65W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 27/0000 UTC IS NEAR 15.9N
46.9W...OR ABOUT 940 NM E OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W
AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS.
EARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 47W-50W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 42W-46W. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 17N23W 7N24W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
WITH AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A
1009 MB LOW ON THE AXIS NEAR 12N24W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. A CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
25W-28W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 9N27W TO 13N36W RESUMING S OF EARL NEAR
10N46W ALONG 8N53W 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 29W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCING MUCH
OF THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W TO 25N94W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SRN MEXICO
COAST NEAR 19N95W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE NE GULF S OF THE FRONT N OF 25N 84W-92W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALSO FLARED UP ALONG THE WRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR
24N94W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE N COVERING MUCH OF THE
NE CONUS SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF THE BASIN. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING S OF CUBA RESULTING
FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SIMILAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES
OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W
IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 74W-81W...AS WELL ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E OF THE CIRCULATION
OF DANIELLE...ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO SW OF JAMAICA NEAR
15N81W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM S
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W TO NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 12N71W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND
ALSO POSSIBLE ENHANCED ACTIVITY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
PROGRESSES WWD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA
W OF 79W ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA
TO NEAR 31N69W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N COVERING
MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT HUGS THE NRN DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N BETWEEN
70W-81W. HURRICANE DANIELLE IS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM EARL IS THE SE OF DANIELLE. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N29W TO 27N40W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS W OF DANIELLE EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE DANIELLE
CENTERED NEAR 22N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N31W WITH AXIS EXTENDING
TO NEAR 19N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC
CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 22N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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