[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DANIELLE IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE OF THE YEAR 2010. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT
27/0900 UTC IS NEAR 26.5N 58.7W...OR ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
25N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN
54W AND 55W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 27/0900 UTC IS NEAR 15.9N
41.6W...OR ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO
18N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N25W 10N27W 13N29W...AND
WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N23W 13N26W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM THE EASTERN YUCATAN STRAITS TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS...THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA...ALONG 86W/87W SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM COSTA RICA
TO EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ...

9N23W 12N28W...9N40W 8N47W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 12N61W
AND BEYOND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN
14W AND 16W...ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W AND 37W...FROM 1N TO
3N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 55W...AND
FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...WITH
A RIDGE THAT CUTS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N
TO 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...CURVING TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A
SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE
MEXICO COAST FROM 20N TO 23N...IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26 BETWEEN 29W AND 31W.
OTHER COMPARATIVELY WEAKER SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING BUT STILL APPARENT FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 66W AND 71W...ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW WHOSE CENTER IS NEAR 23N65W. THIS IS CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 23N65W CYCLONIC
CENTER ULTIMATELY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS. WEAKENING SHOWERS REMAIN
IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM JAMAICA
TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 24N74W TO
A 19N78W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CONTINUING
INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 13N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA...
AND EL SALVADOR.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W IN A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE DANIELLE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. TROPICAL STORM EARL COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. INFORMATION ABOUT THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM
THE EAST IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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