[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 270232
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010


AFTER LOSING MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARL
HAS DEVELOPED NEW THUNDERSTORM CELLS AROUND THE LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TONIGHT. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD A WARMER OCEAN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER RELATIVELY
LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
EARL WILL DEVELOP A DEEP CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION OF
STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS DEVELOP
EARL INTO AN INTENSE HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE CIRCULATION...THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. USING ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA...THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
EARL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
AFRICA WESTWARD TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. EARL
SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AS IT APPROACHES 60W WHERE THERE IS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT BIASED TO THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      27/0300Z 15.5N  40.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N  42.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.3N  46.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N  49.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 16.7N  52.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 18.5N  58.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 21.0N  62.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 24.0N  65.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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