[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 262357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 26/2100 UTC IS NEAR
25.2N 57.0W...OR ABOUT 590 NM...SE OF BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 13
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 115 KT. AN EYE HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE
INDICATING A STRENGTHENING PATTERN AND MORE STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE CENTER FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 56W-59W...AS WELL AS IN AN
OUTER RAINBAND TO THE NE FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 53W-56W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
55W-61W...AND FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 51W-57W. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE SYSTEM. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 26/2100 UTC IS NEAR 15.2N
38.8W...OR ABOUT 1410 NM E OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W
AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS.
EARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY NW OF
THE CENTER FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 38W-41W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE CLEAR CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
11N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 19W-27W WITH THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY ABOUT TO IMPACT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N83W ACROSS WRN CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W...AND ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES N OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
FLARED UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN
83W-89W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 81W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N23W TO 14N30W RESUMING S OF EARL NEAR
10N40W ALONG 8N45W 11N61W AND ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN ALONG
12N70W 11N83W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-82W...AND FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE
BASIN. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE WRN GULF NEAR 24N95W AT
THE TAIL END OF STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W CONTINUING SW TO THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
24N95W 21N95W 19N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WITHIN 320 NM SE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LOW CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGH. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING WWD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 89W-92W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA AND THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. ALOFT...A MOIST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 25N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NRN GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ALSO DELINEATES THE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF THE FRONT WITH
CLEAR SKIES TO THE N. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM WRN CUBA TO HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA IS ENHANCING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS WELL AS OVER WRN CUBA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-82W...AND FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...UPPER
RIDGING COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR COVERS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
21N64W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA
W OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND EXTENDING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N61W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR
WEATHER. HURRICANE DANIELLE IS SE OF THE HIGH. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS W OF
DANIELLE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E. A COLD FRONT
SKIMS THE NRN DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 29N BETWEEN 41W-49W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE
AREA ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC. T.S. EARL IS S OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
28N27W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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