[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 26/1500 UTC IS NEAR 24.4N
55.9W...OR ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...OR ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SE OF BERMUDA...MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 54W-58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NE OF THE CENTER FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 26/1500 UTC IS NEAR 14.9N
37.1W...OR ABOUT 1735 MI...2795 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 19W S OF
20N MOVING W AT 12 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N
BETWEEN 17W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 24N81W TO 16N83W TO
9N83W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN E OF HONDURAS FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 77W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N21W TO 14N29W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W
OF HURCN DANIELLE AT 10N38W AND CONTINUES W TO 8N44W 14N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
SPECIAL FEATURES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 37W-39W...AND FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N95W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ALONG 29N90W 31N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 23N93W 17N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 93W-95W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 87W-92W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF
27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE NW GULF PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 72W-78W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N
BETWEEN 75W-77W. SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N63W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 31N40W 30N45W 30N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 39W-44W. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N28W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF DANIELLE NEAR 23N65W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 63W-66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N22W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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