[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 26/0900 UTC IS NEAR
23.4N 54.9W...OR ABOUT 740 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 968 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO
25N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 26/0900 UTC IS NEAR
15.2N 34.8W...OR ABOUT 580 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND
22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM CUBA ALONG 81W TO ABOUT 50 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER...
TO PANAMA ALONG 82W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO
16N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W.

...THE ITCZ...

11N18W 10N22W 12N28W 9N34W 8N41W 11N54W 12N62W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD BY HURRICANE DANIELLE...FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN
50W AND 57W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN VENEZUELA
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 93W...CONTINUING ACROSS
ALL OF MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE THAN ONE INDIVIDUAL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE MIXED INTO THE COMPARATIVELY
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN WESTERN COASTAL MEXICO FROM 21N TO 26N. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 26N93W...TO 24N96W. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH GOES
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
17N TO 23N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. IT APPEARS THAT THE ORIGINAL TROUGH
FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED...AND THAT THE TROUGH THAT WAS
AFFECTING FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO NOW HAS MOVED EASTWARD...INTO
PLACE AFTER THE ORIGINAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH WEAKENED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM 20N80W INTO WESTERN HONDURAS.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND
EASTERN GUATEMALA...AND FROM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
TOWARD JAMAICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE FROM COSTA RICA TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N IN COLOMBIA TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO 76W IN COLOMBIA...IN
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS IN NORTHERN COASTAL
COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE DANIELLE AND TROPICAL STORM EARL COVER THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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