[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 252354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE AT 25/2100 UTC IS NEAR
21.2N 53.1W...OR ABOUT 585 NM...ENE OF THE NRN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...MOVING NW AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY NW OF THE
CENTER FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
50W-54W...FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 48W-52W...AND FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 56W-60W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 25/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.4N
32.2W...OR ABOUT 450 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM
AS A TROPICAL STORM. EARL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT 48 HRS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 30W-33W...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
32W-35W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICA COAST ALONG 16W FROM
7N-20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 13W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...W OF
JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-82W IN WHICH THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER VALUES
OF RELATIVE VORTICITY THAT CAN BE TRACKED MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN IN SYNC WITH THE WAVE AXIS MOVEMENT OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 73W-85W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 11N17W TO 12N24W RESUMING S OF EARL NEAR
10N32W CONTINUING ALONG 7N40W 11N49W INTO NRN VENEZUELA NEAR
10N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
18W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING DRAWN NWD
FROM THE ITCZ TOWARD DANIELLE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN. A
1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE WRN GULF NEAR 25N93W CONFIRMED BY
AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
THE CENTER ALONG 28N88W 26N92W 25N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS TO
THE N EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA
STATE BORDER NEAR 30N88W CONTINUING TO THE SRN TEXAS COAST NEAR
27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
23N-29N EXTENDING FROM SRN TEXAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE ERN SEABOARD EXTENDING S TO E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WEAK UPPER RIDING IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN
WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING ALSO OVER THE NW GULF. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE NRN
GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH ALSO DELINEATES THE AREA OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE N.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN
88W-94W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ACROSS CUBA MOST LIKELY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA TO PANAMA IS ALSO ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM ERN CUBA ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE E PACIFIC...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. REMNANT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. SOME STATIONS ARE
EVEN REPORTING THE PRESENCE OF DUST INDICATING A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND
OFF THE ERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE W OF 72W ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH EXTENDS TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ALSO ENHANCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF 76W.
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N61W
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER. THE
HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF TURKS
AND CAICOS NEAR 27N69W. HURRICANE DANIELLE IS SE OF THE HIGH.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS W OF DANIELLE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH NEAR 28N40W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER TO THE ENE. TROPICAL STORM
EARL IS SSE OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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