[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 251444
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY NUMBER

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF
2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND
VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM
WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION.  BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON
THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS  MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE.  BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN
MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/1500Z 14.3N  30.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.7N  33.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.2N  36.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 16.0N  39.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.5N  42.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N  48.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 19.0N  53.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N  57.0W    85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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