[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 25/0300 UTC IS NEAR 18.2N
49.8W...OR ABOUT 950 NM TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N27W...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N71W...CROSSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 16N74W TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 10N74W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 9N29W TO 7N35W 10N43W...AND FROM 10N52W ALONG 10N INTO AND
BEYOND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA THROUGH 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
33W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE AREA PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...AND THEN IT
CONTINUES ACROSS 25N...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LOWER TEXAS GULF
COAST. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 28N83W. OTHER SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W THROUGH
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W...
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...WITH TROPICAL
STORM FRANK IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
OF MEXICO...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOES INTO HONDURAS.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 67W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
CUBA...TO A 19N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 27N70W 23N74W...FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND WESTERN GUATEMALA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN HAITI TO A 14N71W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF
VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA
FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W...NEAR MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE DANIELLE AND ITS RELATED WEATHER COVER THE AREA FROM
THE ITCZ TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND EVENTUALLY BEYOND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH TO 22N77W AT THE CUBA
COAST. SHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N66W 25N70W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
27N41W TO A 27N52W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 22N60W TO 20N65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N37W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N59W...TO 28N72W INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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