[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 24/0900 UTC IS NEAR
15.9N 44.6W...OR ABOUT 970 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...MOVING WEST 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 973 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N
TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 23W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND
26W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 28W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 9N
BETWEEN 23W AND 31W...POSSIBLY MIXED IN WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/68W FROM 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 12N NEAR BONAIRE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N
TO 28N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N
TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N22W TO 9N26W TO 12N35W...AND FROM 10N44W TO 9N50W INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
10N39W 6N49W 8N55W 10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE AREA PASSING THROUGH GEORGIA
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N83W 26N87W 25N92W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAIN
IN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 100W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CUBA...TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND...AND CONTINUING TO
A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
GUATEMALA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD BEYOND EL SALVADOR
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATEDSTRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 76W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 76W. A FEW INDIVIDUAL
CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW. A 66W/68W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE DANIELLE AND ITS RELATED WEATHER COVER THE AREA
FROM THE ITCZ TO 22N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 29N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 25N48W
CYCLONIC CENTER TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N57W
TO 21N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W
TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N35W...TO
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N58W...TO 30N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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