[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 24/0300 IS NEAR 15.6N
43.2W...OR ABOUT 1100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE WEST OF AFRICA AND
ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN
20W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W...POSSIBLY MIXED
IN WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE JUST HAS FINISHED PASSING
OVER PUERTO RICO. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT SPANNED THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA IS NOT APPARENT ANY
MORE AND IT HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 24/00Z MAP ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N22 TO 9N26W TO 12N35W...AND FROM 10N44W TO 9N50W INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
8N40W 7N50W 10N57W 12N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE AREA PASSING THROUGH GEORGIA
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO
THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND 87W. SHOWERS
IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING WITH TIME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CUBA...TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND...AND CONTINUING
TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN EASTERN GUATEMALA. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD BEYOND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...SPILLING INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF MEXICO.
SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING IN CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 10N TO NORTHERN HONDURAS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH
TIME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 26N70W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 76W. A FEW INDIVIDUAL
CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW. A 66W/67W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE DANIELLE AND ITS RELATED WEATHER COVER THE AREA
FROM THE ITCZ TO 22N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 29N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 24N48W
CYCLONIC CENTER TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N57W
TO 21N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N
TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N25W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N32W...
TO 29N43W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N52W...TO 29N63W...AND 29N72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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