[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 232356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 23/2100
UTC. HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 41.5W AT 23/2100
UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 1150 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W-NW
AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A W-NW
TRACK BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NW WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
DANIELLE SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT THE NW QUADRANT...BUT IS
STARTING TO IMPROVE AS THE SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO RELAX.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
15N41.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES W OR
W-NW AT ABOUT 13 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 25N63W IN THE W ATLC ALONG 20N65W ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 13N63W IN THE E CARIBBEAN MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SWATH OF MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS PRECEDING AN AREA
OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR AS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTING.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 27N73W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA TO
E JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS LOSING ITS
IDENTITY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS MUCH
OF THE ATLC BASIN.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N21W TO 11N32W THEN RESUMES W OF
HURRICANE DANIELLE NEAR 12N45W 9N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 10N63W THEN ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N73W TO
THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 9N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N25W TO
6N28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS S TO OVER THE N GULF COAST E OF LOUISIANA SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS AND A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO 24N89W. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF
WATERS IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST AT THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST S OF 21N E OF 92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH
NEAR 23N96W LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL UPPER LOW IS OVER BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N89W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR W CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 83W.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR NEAR 9N76W TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
15N72W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. TWO TROPICAL WAVES EXTEND S INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DOT THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 69W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS EVENING IS HURRICANE DANIELLE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
29N75W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N79W AND DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-29N BETWEEN 76W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 77W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA HAVE MOVED N INTO THE W ATLC WATERS S OF 20N
BETWEEN 67W-73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
27N73W TO 33N65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 70W WITH A
PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 30N57W AND 31N32W AND BENIGN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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