[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 232033
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS NOW RELAXING.  A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION.  DESPITE THAT
STRUCTURE...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS.  THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN
LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND
HWRF.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
290/15.  A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 15.4N  41.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  43.6W    80 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.8N  46.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 19.6N  48.8W    95 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 21.6N  51.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 25.0N  55.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  57.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  58.5W    95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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