[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N
39.4W...OR ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE
CENTER FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 38W-42W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
ALONG 16W FROM 4N-14N. A SURFACE LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF
FORMING ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 13W-22W. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 25N61W TO 19N63W TO 12N60W MOVING W AT 18 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO
WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-25N EXCLUDING AROUND DANIELLE.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E OF
JAMAICA FROM 28N71W TO 17N75W MOVING W AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS E
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N18W TO 11N30W. THE ITCZ RESUMES
W OF T.S. DANIELLE AT 11N44W AND CONTINUES W TO 10N50W 11N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
T.S. DANIELLE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N11N
BETWEEN 28W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 24N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
24N-29N BETWEEN 82W-92W. A 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR
24N94W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W
PRODUCING MAINLY NE TO E UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER
THE NW GULF AND TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS.
EXPECT... THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF IN 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA
FROM 21N90W TO 11N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 75W-84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
70W-73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
HONDURAS FROM 16N-20N. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGH ESPECIALLY W
OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THREE TROPICAL WAVES AND
THE FIRST CAPE VERDE TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON ARE OVER THE
TROPICS. SEE ABOVE. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N53W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N32W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING
THE SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N46W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER
THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES
TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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