[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N
37.1W...OR ABOUT 770 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IT
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER
FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 36W-42W. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 25N59W
19N61W 13N59W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWING AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN 58W-63W INDICATED BY TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WEAK BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N70W TO 19N74W
MOVING NW NEAR 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THIS WAVE IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
SUPPORTING ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...EXTENDING
WESTWARD ALONG 7N21W TO 12N30W. THEN RESUMES SE OF TROPICAL
STORM DANIELLE NEAR 8N42W...CONTINUING ALONG 8N49W TO 11N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN
THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND 29W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS GOOD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THIS REGION. WEAKER
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 42W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF AIR MOVING INTO THE E SEABOARD AND SE
STATES...CREATING A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN MOIST AND DRY AIR
ALONG THE SE US COASTLINE. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF E OF 93W N OF 24N. THE ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED 80 NM WEST OF MADEIRA BEACH FLORIDA NEAR
28N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR
24N87W. AS CONDITIONS ARE EVOLVING QUITE RAPIDLY...REEFER TO
YOUR LOCAL COASTAL NWS FOR MORE DETAILS AND WARNINGS. THE WRN
HALF OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
1013 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 24N93W SUPPORTED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER
UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS W OF 93W. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W...PROVIDED BY THE COMBINATION OF AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF HONDURAS TO THE
SW CARIBBEAN...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW BETWEEN UPPER
RIDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR A PORTION OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W. THE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN
63W-70W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS.
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF
THE BAHAMAS W OF 71W S OF 27N...INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 26N75W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE EXTENDING FROM 28N69W TO 19N74W. ASIDE ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND T.S. DANIELLE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 25N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N53W AND A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH NEAR
31N32W...MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN AREA
OF AFRICAN DUST IS FURTHER PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
44W-55W. ALOFT...WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS BETWEEN 50W-70W. A SMALL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 27N45W WITH UPPER RIDGING COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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