[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 230300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE...WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND
1900 UTC...HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -90 C.  AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS AT 2151 UTC SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY
SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE
3.0...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. A
RECENTLY ARRIVING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 35 TO 40 KT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS RAISING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 315/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO.  OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY
STRENGTHENING.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0300Z 14.2N  35.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.9N  37.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.9N  40.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 17.1N  43.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N  46.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.7N  50.8W    75 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 24.5N  54.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  57.0W    85 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI


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