[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 34.1W AT 22/1500
UTC...OR ABOUT ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
PROVIDE FOR MINIMAL WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 34W-39W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N54W TO 17N55W TO 11N51W MOVING W
AT 18 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR E OF
THE WAVE AXIS TO WEST AFRICA N OF 17N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 28N67W TO 19N73W MOVING
W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
24N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
67W-70W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N13W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
15N24W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF T.D. SIX AT 10N37W AND CONTINUES W
TO 11N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 12W-17W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
29W-33W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 96W-100W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N89W. 10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF ALONG
THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-89W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N101W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
AND OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH AND
CONVECTION TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-66W DUE TO A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND BETWEEN
HISPANIOLA AND HONDURAS FROM 16N-20N. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH.
ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEE
ABOVE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N32W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO THE W ATLANTIC
TO 30N65W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 67W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N43W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND
THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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