[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
11N26W...ABOUT 275 NM TO THE SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 24W-27W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOW...

A 1011 MB LOW HAS FORMED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
12N19W NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 19W-21W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N43W 17N42W 10N39W MOVING W 20 KT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR E OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-25N.

A TROPICAL WAVE...FORMERLY DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH...IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W S OF 23N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE
SYSTEM WAS TRACKED BACK TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON 15 AUG AS A
NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTER. THIS WAVE ALSO HAS A WEAK AREA OF
DUST AND DRY AIR E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 43W FROM 15N-30N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 62W-65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 21N91W TO 12N88W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 84W-95W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 81W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 93W-96W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N30W 12N40W 10N50W 10N60W.
CROSS EQUATORIAL MONSOON FLOW IS E OF 30W TO WEST AFRICA AND
THUS NOT DEPICTED AS AN ITCZ. TWO SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED
IN THIS AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.
SEE ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE
GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF STATES FROM E TEXAS TO N FLORIDA N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
OVER THE N GULF STATES. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE N GULF STATES...AND
ALL OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
74W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
JAMAICA FROM 16N-20N. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
SEA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N73W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 29N62W 24N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1021 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N29W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N64W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN
62W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N38W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS. ALSO
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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