[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N26W...
ABOUT 275 NM TO THE SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
28W AND 32W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27N41W 20N41W 11N38W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO
14N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W FROM 12N TO 24N. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE SPANS THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 16N TO 26N INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN
THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALSO SPANS THE AREA OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N39W TO 10N50W TO 8N62W INTO VENEZUELA. LARGE-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N
TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOW SEEMS TO COVER ONLY
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW HAS OVERTAKEN EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 21N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COAST OF MEXICO COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 20N TO 23N.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO FROM
18N TO 19N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N.

THE TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N62W. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 32N58W.
A SECOND TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 18N62W...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N64W...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE VENEZUELA
COAST ALONG 65W/66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 19N
TO 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 26N
INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND
WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE
BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE SPANS THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS TAKING PLACE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA COAST AND FROM COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD AND LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF 55W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT ALONG 43W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE...AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS THAT ARE TO
THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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