[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N25W...
ABOUT 200 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W
AND 31W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N40W 18N39W 12N35W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 37W AND 41W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 12N TO 25N. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 23N88W IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
REACHING 17N87W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INTO
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
NICARAGUA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. POSSIBLY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
IN HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 12N39W TO 11N45W 12N55W BEYOND 10N60W INTO VENEZUELA.
LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE
EAST OF 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 21W AND 45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE U.S.A.
FROM LOUISIANA...ACROSS TEXAS...INTO MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
24N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN MOVING FROM GUATEMALA WESTWARD...NOW
IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE MEXICO COASTAL WATERS ALONG 107W.
A SEPARATE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N94W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO AND BARELY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF WATERS.

THE TROUGH FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N61W. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 31N57W.
A SECOND TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N62W...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG
65W/66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N60W 24N62W 19N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
20N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 26N
INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND
WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N IN THE HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS
TO 25N OVER ANDROS ISLAND...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
IN A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 50W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ON TOP OF
THE BAHAMAS...INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 27N56W 21N59W AND BEYOND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 26N
BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N TO THE WEST
OF 70W AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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