[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N33W 18N32W 14N30W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY
OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF
25N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY
OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM WESTERN CUBA...JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...TOWARD THE PANAMA COAST
ALONG 80W. AT LEAST TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHS ARE ON TOP OF THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS...WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF
JAMAICA...AND IN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 13N30W TO 13N39W 9N52W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...AND FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 14N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE U.S.A.
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N. BROAD MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING FROM GUATEMALA WESTWARD...NOW IS ROLLING THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W ON
THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF JAMAICA...AND INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD
STEADILY...AFTER BEING ON TOP OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT LEAST
THREE DAYS AGO. A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW/A TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA TO THE WEST OF 72W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS...WITHIN 180 NM
TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND IN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS ELSEWHERE
TO THE WEST OF 74W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD
THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
COVER THE AREA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 50W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ON TOP OF
THE BAHAMAS...INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 27N56W 21N59W AND BEYOND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 26N
BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N TO THE WEST
OF 70W AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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