[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N32W 18N31W 14N27W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH
IF ANY OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS
WAVE...OR IF THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N39W 18N41W 12N40W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH IF ANY OF
THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE...OR IF
THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N52W 13N53W 7N53W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 17N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 11N79W. AT LEAST TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHS ARE ON TOP OF THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE
PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER TO 13N ACROSS COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 74W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 13N30W TO 13N39W 9N52W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE U.S.A.
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES...FROM LOUISIANA SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN MOVING FROM GUATEMALA
WESTWARD. THIS CENTER NOW IS ROLLING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA TO 95W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 19N101W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
105W AND 107W IN MEXICO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF JAMAICA. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD STEADILY...AFTER BEING ON TOP OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT LEAST THREE DAYS AGO. A SEPARATE AREA OF
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/A TROUGH COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA TO THE WEST OF 72W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER PARTS OF COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH
OF 7N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 74W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W
THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL AREA OF
VENEZUELA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 50W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ON TOP OF
THE BAHAMAS...INFLUENCED BY THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 27N56W 21N59W AND BEYOND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 31N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 31N53W TO 31N60W AND 31N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 27N62W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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