[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N25W 14N27W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FROM CENTRAL AFRICA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS. MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 22W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26N37W 13N40W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N72W...ACROSS HAITI...
BEYOND 15N74W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 73W/74W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IT IS NOT EASY
TO KNOW IF THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT COVER THE WATERS
FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W ARE ASSOCIATED JUST
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND/OR JUST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 13N30W TO 10N44W 8N50W...THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME
AND NORTHERN GUYANA BEYOND 6N60W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN
37W AND 39W...FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W...AND FROM 8N TO
10N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE 17N91W CYCLONIC CENTER THAT JUST ROLLED
THROUGH GUATEMALA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR
24N. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND IN
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND 105W...
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH A CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS ALONG THE MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO 20N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR AND NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR
17N91W...EXITING GUATEMALA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N87W 17N83W 12N79W IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND JAMAICA FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
REST OF THE WATERS FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 69W AND 78W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N54W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 10N61W. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH REACHES 14N67W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH CLOUDS CUT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MONA PASSAGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
PER THE TROUGH BASE THAT IS NEAR 10N61W. SHOWERS 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 55W AND 56W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG 31N/32W BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 33N75W 30N77W 29N82W IN FLORIDA. SHOWERS ALONG THE
TROUGH HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 32N48W 26N66W...INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO
21N54W TO 10N61W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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