[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH OF
23N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL AFRICA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS.
NEARBY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ MORE THAN
JUST WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N71W...ACROSS HAITI...
BEYOND 16N73W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND ITS BORDER WITH VENEZUELA
ALONG 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW IF THE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W ARE ASSOCIATED JUST WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND/OR JUST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 88W SIX HOURS AGO
NO LONGER IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DATA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 13N30W TO 12N42W 8N50W...THROUGH NORTHERN GUYANA BEYOND
6N60W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST
OF 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 15N BETWEEN 5W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 29N83W 26N90W 20N97W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND IN MEXICO BETWEEN
GUATEMALA AND 103W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH NOW ONLY COVERS PARTS OF
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...INTO ARIZONA. ALONG 31N110W
24N106W 20N104W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ONE AREA OF COMPARATIVELY BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CENTRAL CUBA. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA TO THE WEST OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND TO THE WEST OF 85W IN CENTRAL
AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N85W 14N81W 10N78W
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT NOW IS NEAR CUBA POSSIBLY HAS
BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA
TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER THE WATERS FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 78W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA TO THE
WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 20N53W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 10N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM THIS TROUGH REACHES 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...THAT POSSIBLY
IS YESTERDAY'S TROUGH...IS ALONG 66W/67W...FROM NORTHERN COASTAL
VENEZUELA AND 14N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 31N65W AND 31N70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N75W 29N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 30N59W 26N70W TO 23N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 20N53W TO 10N60W.
THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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