[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANT 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS WITHIN A 30 NM TO
45 NM RADIUS OF 29.5N90W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND
TO THE EAST OF TEXAS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY NOW THAT THE CENTER HAS
MOVED INLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COAST TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL AFRICA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 20W AND
22W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N28W TO 12N36W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N65W...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...TO 15N BETWEEN 67W/68W...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG
67W/68W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO
15 KT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE AREAS OF
EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THESE AREAS. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HUG THE COASTLINE FROM EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA
TO EASTERN HONDURAS. IT IS POSSIBLE ALSO THAT THIS PRECIPITATION
MAY BE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND NOT THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 12N30W TO 8N40W 8N50W 12N58W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 51W. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN COVERING THE COASTAL WATERS AND
INLAND AREAS FROM BRAZIL NEAR 50W TO GUYANA MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 15N46W...EVENTUALLY
REACHING NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 28N83W 23N90W IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER
AND 100W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...AND AT THE WESTERN
END OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS
IN MEXICO ALONG 31N110W 24N106W 20N104W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N
TO THE WEST OF 106W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 21N80W TO A 18N85W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS
AND INLAND FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SOUTHWARD ALONG 73W/74W TO COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 22N.
THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS AROUND THE 22N65W TROPICAL
WAVE THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 67W/68W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 33N56W TO 32N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 32N63W TO 28N70W AND TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 22N72W NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 22N46W 15N46W
10N54W...TOWARD THE GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER. THIS TROUGH IS
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF 10N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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