[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANT 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS NEAR 30N87W...
ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE BAY...AND ABOUT
80 NM TO THE EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 28N TO 31N
BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG SECTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST TODAY.
PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL AFRICA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 18W AND
20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N28W TO 14N24W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N63W 16N65W TO THE
VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 65W/66W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W...AND IN THE WATERS TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND 69W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...CONTINUING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO
15 KT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE AREAS OF
EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THESE AREAS.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 12N30W TO 8N40W 8N50W 12N58W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 8W AND 50W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE IN FRENCH GUIANA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM BRAZIL NEAR
50W TO GUYANA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT REACHES NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 26N82W 22N90W IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...AND AT THE WESTERN END OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN MEXICO ALONG 31N109W
22N104W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N109W 20N105W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 21N80W TO A 19N84W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 17N
TO THE WEST OF 80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW
CLOUD CLUSTERS THAT ARE IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND 75W ARE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER SOUTHWARD ALONG 73W TO COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 22N. THE
NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS AROUND THE 20N63W 16N65W TROPICAL
WAVE THAT ULTIMATELY REACHES THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 65W/66W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 30N64W TO 28N76W AND 30N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 22N71W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 25N45W 18N48W 10N54W...TOWARD
THE GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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