[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE...IS
LOCATED S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA NEAR 29N86W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NRN
GULF WHERE STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN S AND W OF THE
LOW CENTER COVERING THE AREA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W.
CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 48 HRS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WWD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLC OVER THE WRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 23N24W TO 9N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS
CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AS WELL AS SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS ALSO E OF THE
AXIS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SUPPRESSION CONVECTION
W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 15W-23W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 18N60W
TO INLAND VENEZUELA NEAR 7N64W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IMPACTING THE
MAJORITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 58W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N84W TO
9N82W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA
OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE W ATLC INDICATED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IMPACTING COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 82W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W. MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 11N25W 9N34W 8N48W 10N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 28W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1009 MB LOW IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR A 1014 MB HIGH OFF THE SRN COAST OF TEXAS NEAR
26N95W MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE S OF MEXICO ALONG 100W
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
94W-98W. ALOFT...NE-E FLOW COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS.
EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES WWD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION
NEAR THE ERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...NELY FLOW COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE OFF THE COAST
OF PANAMA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-81W SUPPORTED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ALONG 10N TO NRN
COLOMBIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE
BAHAMAS ACROSS HAITI TO N OF PANAMA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF ERN CUBA AND
ACROSS JAMAICA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 76W-81W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA N OF 17N
BETWEEN 69W-71W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS
THIS WAVE MOVES WWD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 31N62W
29N70W 27N76W 31N81W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 64W-73W...AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
77W-81W. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS DIMINISHING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM ERN
TEXAS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 67W-70W ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE NE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N47W
TO THE MONA PASSAGE. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDING DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N29W MAINTAINING FAIR
WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-60W PROVIDING STABLE
CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
20N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS COVERING THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
23N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON/MONTALVO





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