[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 13W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
WAVE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 15W-18W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N47W TO 8N42W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DUE
TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST E OF THE WAVE
AXIS...DEEP CONVECTION IS CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
40W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N70W
TO 8N72W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE PREVIOUSLY SPLIT WITH
THE NRN PORTION REMAINING STATIONARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ABSORBED
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LEAVING
ONLY MODERATE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE WWD PROPAGATING WAVE AXIS
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-18N
BETWEEN 66W-71W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO W OF THE AXIS FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-76W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WRN CUBA NEAR 21N85W ACROSS CENTRAL
HONDURAS TO NEAR 9N88W MOVING W 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WRN CARIBBEAN AND E PACIFIC IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. THE
MAIN CYCLONIC TURNING AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS LOCATED NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC. SEE
TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N11W ALONG 8N30W
8N40W 8N50W 9N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS...150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
12W-40W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 44W-54W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 59W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE FAR NRN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 81W-95W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE SE CONUS AND FAR NRN GULF NEAR THE REMNANTS
OF T.D. FIVE THAT ARE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN ALABAMA WITH
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF
OF THE BASIN FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CENTERED JUST N OF SRN MEXICO NEAR 19N92W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
DRY AIR WRAPPED AROUND IT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS BEING
PRODUCING BESIDES A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 30 NM INLAND
OF THE WRN COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N-24N. EXPECT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND
PUSH SWD ACROSS FLORIDA AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF T.D. FIVE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFT S.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S OF WRN CUBA ACROSS HONDURAS TO THE E
PACIFIC. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF ERN
HISPANIOLA TO WRN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF THE ISLANDS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 66W-71W WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE AXIS AND N OF VENEZUELA. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 15N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 58W. TRINIDAD HAS ALREADY REPORTED
1.94 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS INCREASING THE CHANCES
OF FLOODING AS THIS LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVES PAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W ALONG 29N71W
31N81W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM S OF THE
FRONT. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN 72W-79W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THESE AREAS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 25N62W ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A BROKEN OFF PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N59W TO 19N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS N OF 21N CONTINUING ALONG A LINE TO THE NE OF THE AXIS
TO NEAR 31N56W. FARTHER E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL/E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 37N31W.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
COVERS MUCH OF THE E ATLC E OF 46W S OF 32N PROVIDING STABLE
CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 42W-57W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE N OF 20N WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED W OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE S CENTERED
W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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