[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N45W TO 11N40W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO WEST AFRICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOW
DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
22N61W TO 19N64W MOVING NW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS S OF CUBA ALONG 83W/84W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS
INDICATED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 77W-81W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 9N30W 9N50W 10N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
10W-25W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
EAST TO WEST SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS ALONG 27N. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 93W-95W...AND FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 98W-102W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA
FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W. EXPECT...
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...OVER
FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 75W-77W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER W CUBA. OTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 60W-64W. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 65W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W
29N70W TO SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES AT 37N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N38W
27N50W 27N80W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND DUST IS N OF 15N E OF
45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE CENTER. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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