[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N44W TO 10N35W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO WEST AFRICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 22N61W TO 16N65W TO
10N66W MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS N OF 15N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...AND OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS S OF CUBA ALONG 82W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS INDICATED
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 76W-84W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 7N30W 8N50W 10N62W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 14N-18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 21W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
EAST TO WEST SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS ALONG 27N. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 96W-100W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-23N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTH GULF STATES...OVER FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND E GUATEMALA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 87W-92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 71W-75W. A RELATIVELY
LAX SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA.
OTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 60W-64W. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 65W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING
THE AREA HOWEVER ALONG 32N64W 31N70W TO SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N38W 27N50W 27N80W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR
AND DUST IS N OF 15N E OF 45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N55W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE CENTER.
EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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