[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
24N49W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA
OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO
28N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE N AND NE SEMI-CIRCLE LEAVING THE CENTER
OF ROTATION VERY WELL EXPOSED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ALONG 12W FROM 6N TO 17N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS W AFRICA
INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND BROAD CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W FROM 6N TO 14N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS...WHILE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
MAXIMUM VALUES TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 40W-50W. SOME
OF THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 7N TO 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS IN A REGION OF DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR. THEREFORE...NO
CYCLONIC FLOW...NOR CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 12N26W 9N37W 7N45W 10N55W
14N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
SOUTH OF THE AXIS EAST OF 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 40W-50W...AND FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 55W-61W..

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN
SEABOARD INTO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHEAST GULF. THE
FIRST ONE IS ANALYZED FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA ALONG 27N83W 28N86W 30N89W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...DRIVING THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN A SW DIRECTION. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN
80 NM S OF THE FIRST ONE. A 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
THIS TROUGH NEAR 26N83W WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND
IT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA THAT
INCLUDES MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS EAST OF 88W S OF 28N. THE
CONVECTION IN THESE REGIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN
EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN
COLOMBIA. THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM NW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W TO
SANTA CRUZ NEAR 12N70W. WHILE BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 73W...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 10N-20N
BETWEEN 58W-70W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 74W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 20 NM ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ABOUT 100 NM OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N48W
AND A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N25W. ALSO...A LARGE
AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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