[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N48W IS NOW LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 48W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MAXIMUM
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW FROM 18N-28N
BETWEEN 43W-51W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED A STRONG WIND
FIELD LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THIS WIND
FIELD LARGELY COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 44W-48W. CURRENTLY LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM 18N15W TO 08N12W
MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. EXAMINING LONG-TERM METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...AND GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
MODEL FIELDS...IT APPEARS THE WAVE PASSED NIAMEY NIGER AROUND
08/0600 UTC. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS W AFRICA ALSO
INDICATES A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW-
LEVELS BETWEEN 07W-16W...WHICH COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL
POSITIONING OF A 600-700 MB LOW NEAR 11N13W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N36W TO 06N38W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS...WHILE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM
VALUES TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN
38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WELL SOUTH OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
NEAR 16N48W TO 07N49W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WHILE MOST OF THE
ENERGY HAS FRACTURED NORTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE LOW...A WEAK
CYCLONIC LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD.
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN
47W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 22N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER S OF 24N BETWEEN 91W-98W. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 12N27W 09N37W 09N49W 14N66W
THEN ALONG 10N BETWEEN 70W AND NW COSTA RICA NEAR 86W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 17W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
04N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W...AND FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 52W-59W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE
VENEZUELA FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 30N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF NEAR SARASOTA THEN NW TO NEAR
MOBILE ALABAMA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N80W TO 30N89W NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS
FARTHER EAST INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS TO 72W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT SW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF NEAR 22N96W. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NE OVER THE NW GULF IS
SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO
THE SW LOUISIANA GULF COAST NEAR CAMERON. E TO SE WINDS UP TO 15
KT RESIDE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE SW AND NW
GULF THIS MORNING AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER 09/0336 UTC ASCAT
PASS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AS AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CUBA
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURROUNDING CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL
WATERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-85W WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SPREADING S-SW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...AREAS W OF 70W ARE EXPERIENCING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY TRADES TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC
REGION ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND ALONG 10N TO NW VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W TO
BONAIRE NEAR 12N68W. WHILE BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 70W...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
59W-69W WITH STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
NE VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N DUE
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 13N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD TO 32N77W THEN CONTINUES SE TO A WEAK AND ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N75W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N79W INTO THE LOW WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE
BAHAMAS...AND CUBA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 72W-81W. FARTHER EAST...THE
REMNANTS OF COLIN ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 37N65W TO 31N67W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N50W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 25N-37N
BETWEEN 65W-71W. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER E OF 42W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W THAT
EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 18N OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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