[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N46W IS LOCATED NORTH OF A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 47W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MAXIMUM
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW FROM 18N-28N
BETWEEN 41W-50W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED A STRONG WIND
FIELD LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THIS WIND
FIELD LARGELY COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 43W-47W. CURRENTLY LOCATED
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N33W TO 06N36W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS...WHILE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A
MAXIMUM TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW NEAR
20N46W TO 07N48W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY
HAS FRACTURED NORTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE LOW...A WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W S OF 22N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER S OF 24N BETWEEN 90W-97W. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
THE INLAND TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 92W-96W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N17W 10N35W 12N47W 13N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
08N-13N BETWEEN 16W-22W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 36W-46W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF TO NEAR MOBILE
ALABAMA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N E
OF 90W. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO THE EASTERN TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. MOSTLY
E TO SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT RESIDE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE SW AND NW GULF TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AS AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
NORTH OF CUBA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CUBA AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN
72W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W IS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH EASTERLY TRADES TO 20 KT. A
PORTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND ALONG 10N TO NW COLOMBIA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W FROM SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO TO
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR CARACAS. WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS BROAD BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
70W...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF 70W WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NE VENEZUELA AND
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD TO 32N77W THEN CONTINUES SE TO A WEAK AND ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N73W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N75W INTO
THE LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THE BAHAMAS...AND CUBA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 73W-82W. FARTHER EAST...THE
REMNANTS OF COLIN ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 35N65W TO 30N67W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS QUICKLY BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 37N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE
TROUGH FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 64W-70W. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...MOSTLY STABLE
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N27W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 19N OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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