[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN AS OF 08/2100 UTC IS NEAR 32.9N 65.6W
MOVING N AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1015 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 65W-67W. COLIN HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. COLIN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 09/0600 UTC.
THE LAST TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN WAS ISSUED AT 2100 UTC.

A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 23N45W HAS CUT OFF FROM A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 46W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 43W-46W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N32W TO 6N35W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 46W S OF 20N
MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF HIGH SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W/95W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SEEN ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FURTHER E FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-92W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 10N24W 15N40W 11N48W 12N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 13W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF E
FLORIDA NEAR 29N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW
ACROSS N FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 29N86W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 85W-90W...AND OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE LOW
AND TROUGH IS MOVING SW TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. THE NW
GULF AND TEXAS HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 30N98W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22N90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE E GULF...AND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ITCZ TRAVERSES N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND S
NICARAGUA PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 73W-86W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 84W-89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. MORE ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 60W-67W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W S OF 16N.
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 20 KT WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS FLOW SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCED THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. EXPECT...
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BESIDES THE 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
29N79W... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 73W-80W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN
IS FURTHER E MOVING N. SEE ABOVE. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N49W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND A TROPICAL
LOW ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SAHARAN DUST IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 21N...E OF 60W TO W AFRICA...EXCLUDING
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N74W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF BERMUDA NEAR COLIN AT
29N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 23N55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 23N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA




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