[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

DUE TO LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...COLIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 1200 UTC. IT'S POSITION AS OF 1800 UTC IS
NEAR 32.4N 65.6W MOVING N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AT 10 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1015 MB. THIS LOW
LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED
WEAK MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND COLIN DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE CIRCULATION
CONTINUES TO ELONGATE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COLIN WILL BECOME A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A CENTER NEAR 23N44W HAS CUT
OFF FROM A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 45W.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
42W-45W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 8N34W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 45W S OF 18N
MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN
THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. WEAK
SURFACE/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED WEAK
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W S OF
22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH
A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW GULF AND
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 93W S OF 21N.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR GUINEA-BISSAU AT
12N15W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 9N23W 10N32W 12N43W 10N55W
11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 22W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IF WITHIN 160 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF...FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA
ALONG 27N82W 28N87W 29N93W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY
A BROAD AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN
SEABOARD. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER A BROAD AREA THAT INCLUDES THE NE GULF...N OF 27N E OF
87W...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS N OF 24N. THE CONVECTION IN THESE REGIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS SOMEWHAT
AGREE WITH DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WITH CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 94W S OF 22N. THIS WAVE IS DRAWING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 93W
S OF 21N. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
GULF...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N WEST OF 75W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND
NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 10N. THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W FROM 11N TO
15N ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN TO REMAIN UNDER DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN
COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 30N WEST
OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS PUSHED SWD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 31N77W 29N78W 27N80W. THIS
SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ABOUT 100 NM OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. TO THE
E...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN IS STILL PRODUCING MODERATE
CONVECTION. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 55W FROM 13N TO
16N SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N44W PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N50W.
ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS FAIR
ACROSS THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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