[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.3N 66.5W OR ABOUT 200
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 07/1200 UTC...MOVING N AT 3 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BE EMBEDDED IN ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM ALSO REMAINS SHEARED
KEEPING CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE CENTER LOCATION. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 64W-67W WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 62W-64W. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 22N38W TO
10N42W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE
WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1013 MB LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS
AT 17N38W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ TO
27N BETWEEN 30W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 38W-41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-43W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM S OF CUBA
NEAR 20N84W ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS/CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO NEAR
11N86W MOVING W AT 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS N OF
HONDURAS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 84W-86W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER NICARAGUA AND SW HONDURAS HAS NOW
MOVED MOSTLY OFFSHORE INTO THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR GUINEA AT 11N14W
CONTINUING ALONG 10N28W 14N36W 8N50W 7N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 15W-19W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 27W FROM 9N-14N SUPPORTING NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 27W-30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
THE WRN GULF NEAR 25N94W SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN TIP OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND INLAND MEXICO FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 94W-96W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS HAS AN AXIS EXTENDING ESE ACROSS
THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND
OFF THE WRN COAST OF FLORIDA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN REMAINING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE AXIS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
84W-86W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS WRN
CUBA AND E OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. A PORTION OF THE E PACIFIC
ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA CONTINUING ALONG 10N INTO NRN
COLOMBIA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE AXIS IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 71W-78W. ALOFT...MAINLY ELY FLOW ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. SEVERAL STATIONS
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN ARE REPORTING THE PRESENCE OF
DUST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD WITH FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
28N73W IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PUSHED SWD
AND ARE NOW OFF THE NRN COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN
77W-81W. TO THE E...TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
HIGH COVERING THE FAR W ATLC AND A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER
E ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 30N50W AND 33N33W
WHICH ARE MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS
ON COLIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 59W FROM 13N-16N ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION COVERS THE FAR W ATLC TO THE W OF COLIN WITH UPPER
RIDGING TO THE S AND IMMEDIATE E OF COLIN. FARTHER E...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CENTERED N OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 24N25W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ALSO
COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF 30W ACCOMPANIED BY AFRICAN DUST
FURTHER MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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