[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.1N 66.5W OR ABOUT 210
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 07/0600 UTC...MOVING N AT 8 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BE EMBEDDED IN ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED KEEPING
CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE CENTER LOCATION. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 64W-67W WITH
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 61W-64W. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 21N37W TO 8N39W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS
CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1014 MB LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS AT 17N.
THIS CIRCULATION IS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ TO 27N
BETWEEN 29W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 36W-40W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
39W-42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM S OF CUBA
NEAR 20N83W ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO NEAR 11N85W MOVING W AT
10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER WATER HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING ONLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER NICARAGUA AND SW
HONDURAS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 84W-87W...AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
87W-91W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA NEAR SIERRA LEONE AT
9N12W CONTINUING ALONG 8N20W 15N35W 10N45W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 26W-32W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 25W-28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
31W-34W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 26N91W IS MAINTAINING
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF
NEAR 23N94W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 90W-93W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN
TEXAS HAS AN AXIS EXTENDING ESE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN REMAINING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER WATER HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN N OF
HONDURAS...WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...WRN HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS CUBA AND HAITI. A
PORTION OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA BORDER CONTINUING ALONG 10N INTO NRN COLOMBIA. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE AXIS IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PANAMA TO 12N. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ALOFT...MAINLY ELY FLOW ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. SEVERAL STATIONS
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN ARE REPORTING THE PRESENCE OF
DUST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD WITH FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
28N75W IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC.
TO THE E...TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS BETWEEN THIS SURFACE HIGH AND
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER E ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB
HIGHS NEAR 32N52W AND 33N33W WHICH ARE MAINTAINING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON COLIN. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE FAR W ATLC TO THE W
OF COLIN WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE S AND IMMEDIATE E OF COLIN.
FARTHER E...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N48W.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 24N26W. A DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER ALSO COVERS THE FAR E ATLC E OF 30W ACCOMPANIED BY
AFRICAN DUST FURTHER MAINTAINED FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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