[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 66.9W OR ABOUT 330
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 06/1500 UTC MOVING ENE 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH THE CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FROM 20N32W TO 8N40W MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE AS SEEN ON
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-18N BETWEEN 32W-44W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FROM 20N80W TO
16N82W TO 12N83W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 79W-85W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N17W 15N35W 8N50W 6N58W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 15W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 23W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N89W. A VERY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS PRODUCING ONLY 5-10 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 86W-88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE NE
GULF...AND THE NW GULF...ESPECIALLY N OF 28N E OF 95W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF
NEAR 23N92W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUED SHOWERS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N...AND THE S GULF S OF 22N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS A TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. THE ITCZ ALSO TRAVERSES N COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 73W-83W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER TRINIDAD. 10
-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. AN AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N75W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS FURTHER E MOVING ENE. SEE
ABOVE. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
31N50W. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. SAHARAN DUST IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 21N...E OF 60W TO
W AFRICA...EXCLUDING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER TROPICAL STORM COLIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N47W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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