[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.0N 67.2W OR ABOUT 348
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 06/1200 UTC MOVING NW 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH THE CONVECTION REGENERATING TO
THE E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM 65W FROM 23N-28N WITH DENSE CLOUD
COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 60W-66W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FROM 22N34W TO 8N38W MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
ALONG 30W AND ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FROM 19N79W TO
12N83W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS UNDER THE W PORTION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
78W-86W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 13N33W THEN RESUMES NEAR
11N40W 8N50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 11N37W
12N41W 10N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 32W-43W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 24W-29W
AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 33W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER FAR NE TEXAS
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ENE TO ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF N OF 25N WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE S GULF NEAR 23N92W COVERING THE SW GULF S OF 25N FROM 85W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N...ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N...AND OVER SE GULF S OF 26N TO OVER CUBA E OF 83W INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. A VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED N OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N69W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN TO ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF
PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY E OF 76W IS
REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING REMAINS TROPICAL STORM COLIN
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N75W COVERING THE AREA FROM
24N-31N BETWEEN 69W AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS/THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 24N-27W AND IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS W OF 80W. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC TO 24N BETWEEN 62W-76W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE NE
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM NEAR 22N64W TO
BEYOND 32N59W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM COLIN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-75W ANCHORED BY
A 1025 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES AND A 1022 MB HIGH 670 NM E OF
BERMUDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ARE UNDER
RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND THUS IS MAINTAINING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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