[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 67.1W OR ABOUT 385
NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 06/0600 UTC MOVING N-NW 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE SE OF THE
CENTER AND THUS THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 23N67W
WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST W
OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY BUT ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE E OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE ISLAND.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FROM 22N33W TO 8N36W MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS TO THE W OF AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG
24W AND ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FROM 19N78W TO
11N82W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ON THE W PORTION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 77W-84W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N17W 14N25W 18N32W THEN RESUMES
NEAR 14N38W 7N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
A 45/60 NM RADIUS OF 12N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 36W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-35...FROM 10-13N BETWEEN
39W-45W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
45W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW ANCHORED OVER NE TEXAS
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ENE TO OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND CONTINUES
TO COVER THE GULF N OF 24N WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE S GULF
NEAR 22N91W COVERING THE SW GULF S OF 24N FROM 84W-97W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N
GULF N OF 28N...ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N...AND IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 24N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E GULF WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH...AS OF 06/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM SE GEORGIA
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY THEN
SW TO 27N85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG N COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME S
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN...MAINLY E OF 75W IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W
ATLC NEAR 27N75W COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 70W-80W
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS/THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS W OF 80W. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 23N BETWEEN 67W-80W. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS TO THE NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 21N61W TO BEYOND 32N59W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM COLIN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC N OF 20N W OF 60W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN
60W-73W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES AND A 1023
MB HIGH 630 NM E OF BERMUDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC ARE UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND THUS IS
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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