[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANT OF COLIN IS A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 23N65W...OR ABOUT 415 NM TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA.
THE REMNANT OF COLIN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 17 KT.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 10 FT TO 15 FT. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN
62W AND 64W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO THE
NORTH FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE WATERS FROM 17N
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 33N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN SOME AREAS OF THIS
CLOUDINESS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS ENROUTE IN ORDER TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM. THE CHANCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS HIGH. RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N28W 16N31W 9N33W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THIS AREA PROBABLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. OTHER
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N77W 11N81W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF
20N TO THE WEST OF 75W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF HONDURAS ALONG 85W...AND
FROM THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW STARTS TO OCCUR NEAR 16N80W...
WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA-BISSAU AND SENEGAL TO 12N30W
TO 10N41W TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N55W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 16W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W...
AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N74W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N90W ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO NEAR 24N104W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 28N90W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THAT IS NEAR
24N98W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. A 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N89W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SPREADING TO THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AROUND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH THAT
GOES FROM 30N92W NORTHWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N
TO THE WEST OF 82W/83W...AROUND THE 21N90W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 18N86W TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
16N88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS PART OF BROAD LARGER-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN PROGRESSIVELY
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW STARTS TO OCCUR NEAR
16N80W...WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 15N77W 11N81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N64W.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N74W.
THE REMNANT FEATURE OF COLIN IS MOVING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING FROM CUBA ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...AND ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 28N37W TO 24N42W TO 16N46W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 300 NM TO 400 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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