[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 13N28W 12N27W 10N
30W MOVING W AT 8-14 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM
AND ITCZ JUST SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 15N
BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.

TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
COLIN IS ABOUT 125 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.
THE REMNANTS OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF 16N
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N30W 7N40W 6N50W 10N60W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM OF THE AXIS EAST
OF 50W AND IN PATCHES WEST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
GULF SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE SE CORNER OF THE
BASIN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ALONG 26N81W TO 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS DEPICTED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 85W
FROM 25N TO 29N ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF
24N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
CENTERED JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...COVERING THE AREA N OF
14N W OF 77W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO THE NE/NW TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA
RICA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AS STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF T.S. COLIN. LOOK FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE SE CORNER
OF THE GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N
TO 30N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 78W FROM 24N TO 30N. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N65W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N
TO 29N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. REMNANT CONVECTION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE COLIN IS NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 16N TO 25N
BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N50W AND A AMPLE 1030 MB HIGH WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N30W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF
DRY SAHARAN AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA/NANCOO




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net