[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 0000 UTC...TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS DEGENERATED INTO A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND
60W. THE REMNANTS OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 22W S OF 17N MOVING
W AT 8-14 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM JUST COMING OUT
OF WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W. SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 16N
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND
72W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTION OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 95W S OF 19N MOVING
WNW AT 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC N OF 11N E OF 100W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WNW INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N27W 8N40W 9N50W 11N60W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES WESTWARD EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N...NOTED AS STRONG
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS AIRMASS IS
KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAIR ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...THE
BACK END OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND.
HOWEVER, THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA S OF 28N TO 40 NM OFFSHORE. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE
SE CONUS...ENHANCING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES MOVING WSW
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND
MISSISSIPPI TO 45 NM OFFSHORE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
MOVING WITHIN THE OUTER REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRY
AIRMASS ALOFT WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPUTER MODEL DATA DEPICTS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS INLAND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 140 NM OFF THE COAST OF
BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 11N W OF 73W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE ITCZ IN THIS REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTION OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW AREAS OF WEAK
SCATTERED CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE EXTENDING WITHIN 200 NM ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N70W 27N74W 25N78W
PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NORTH OF 23N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND
60W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL
STORM COLIN. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N50W AND A AMPLE 1031 MB HIGH WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N30W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF
DRY SAHARAN AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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