[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 032043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

THE CENTER OF COLIN PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE WOODS HOLE NTAS BUOY
ABOUT 15Z...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER.  HOWEVER...NEITHER THAT BUOY NOR THE
NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41040 REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTING A CLOSED
CIRCULATION...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED.  BASED ON THIS...COLIN HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL
AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.

IN THE SHORT TERM...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF
COLIN ENCOUNTER WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...NONE
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEY FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD REACH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES BY DAY 5.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH
96 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN EXTREMELY RAPID 285/30.  ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS MUCH FASTER.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR 96-120 HR FORECASTS WESTWARD...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 15.8N  53.8W    35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 16.8N  57.2W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 18.4N  60.8W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N  63.8W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.7N  66.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 25.0N  70.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 28.0N  72.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     08/1800Z 30.0N  73.5W    30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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