[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT
03/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 47.2W
OR ABOUT 820 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING
W-NW AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE
LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT WAS NW OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAS BEEN ABSORBED.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 20N61W ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N65W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE WAS OBSERVED IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 63W-69W INCLUDING BONAIRE AND
CURACAO ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM SAINT LUCIA TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS NOW JUST INLAND
OVER THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N87W JUST OFF
SHORE OF BELIZE TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR NEAR
13N88W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE AND JUST TO THE W OF A MID LEVEL LOW
THAT IS CENTERED INLAND OVER HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND
GUATEMALA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 15N16W 12N24W 8N30W 9N43W 9N54W
11N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 20W AND THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN23W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
29W-38W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 53W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EXTENDING AN AXIS S INTO THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA TO S
MEXICO AND THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 91W WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO
TAMPICO. THIS INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 96W/97W BETWEEN 22N-25N AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W BAY OF
CAMPECHE BETWEEN 94W-97W. STRONG NE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND TEXAS. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF FROM EAST TO WEST AND ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS
DOMINATING THE GULF THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 20N W OF 82W WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 80W-85W. A MID LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CENTERED INLAND OVER HONDURAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
17N85W OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO 12N86W. THIS IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N W
OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE ITCZ ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE GREAT ANTILLES FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 69W-74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 77W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W TO 25N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ENTERING THE REGION FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR 32N70W TO
28N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUING WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N74W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 25N80W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N63W AND DIPS S OVER A PORTION OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 62W-66W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N E OF 65W
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES AND RATHER BENIGN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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