[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 2100Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N
42.5W OR LOCATED ABOUT 1270 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N  BETWEEN 42W
AND 46W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ALONG 23N48W 18N46W 14N43W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODERATE VALUES OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ALSO...ISOLATED
WEAK CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 24W AND 51W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 63W S OF
17N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOUTH OF MARTINIQUE AND INLAND
PORTION OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S
OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS IN A REGION OF MODERATE
VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 17N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 11N22W 7N30W 8N40W. THEN...THE ITCZ
RE-APPERAS ALONG 10N44W 9N51W TO 11N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND
40W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
CONTINUES TO EXPAND WSW WITHIN THE OUTER REGION OF CYCLONIC
ROTATION AROUND A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR SW MISSOURI AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM 25N TO 29N...AS WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 86W
AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 30N91W 26N93W 24N95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY THE SAME UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED EARLIER. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THIS REGION AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VIGOROUS SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED
VALUES OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 18N W OF
78W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS
COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 63W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 65W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOUTH
OF MARTINIQUE AND INLAND PORTION OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH A FEW AREAS OF WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N70W 29N74W 28N78W PRODUCING
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTH OF 23N...AND 80 NM
WEST OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 24W AND 51W...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 43N30W. ALSO...A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN
AIR IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FURTHER KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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