[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 41.1W OR ABOUT
1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 1500 UTC MOVING
WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NW OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR ALONG 43W FROM 15N-22N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 59W-62W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 60W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 82W-84W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 94W
S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE LIES JUST E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 22N96W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N30W 11N40W 10N50W 11N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 17W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY DISSIPATED. FURTHER N...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
84W-89W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N96W. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS S OF
HISPANIOLA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 67W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS DEPICTED BY RADAR. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N69W
28N74W 30N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 68W-71W. A DOMINATE 1037 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N29W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
AND E OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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