[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 13N39W WITH A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 11N38W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W.
THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...
HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES
NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N58W 15N59W TO 9N58W MOVING W 5-10
KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE WAS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE 1007 MB
LOW THAT WAS NEAR 11N82W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE AND JUST
TO THE W OF AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WAVE IS ALSO AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH ANY CONVECTION DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 21N ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE LIES JUST TO THE W OF AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO 26N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
S MEXICO AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
BETWEEN 92-96W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 9N26W 11N40W 9N49W 10N57W
10N63W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 11.5N27.5W TO 9.5N30W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 26W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-19W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N19W TO 8N25W AND FROM 7N30W TO
6N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 40W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
EXTENDING AN AXIS SE INTO THE NE GULF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
TO ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N83W WITH A SECOND
WEAKER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SSW OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES
EXTENDING FROM S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W TO
NEAR 26N92W. THIS INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N90W TO 22N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
INLAND OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI AND COUPLED WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NE GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-90W.
LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY
FROM FORT MYERS TO JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE E GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SMALL UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING
ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N78W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 78W-81W
INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO JUST W OF JAMAICA. THIS IS
GIVING THE AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-85W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS APPROACHING
THE LESSER ANTILLES GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 16N E OF 66W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLC W OF 76W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF
28N W OF 68W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 33N70W ALONG 29N72W 29N76W THEN NW TO 31N78W.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 73W AND THE FLORIDA COAST. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN N OF 20N
E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES AND
RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS IS MAINTAINING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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